Tools

Handicap Analysis

Break down market margins, identify value, and apply Kelly Criterion to edge your betting.

Market Odds

Home Odds

Away Odds

Your Assessment

What's your actual win probability for Home?

Home Win Probability (%)

Market Margin

Total Implied Prob

105.26%

Bookmaker Margin

5.00%

Home Implied52.63%

Away Implied52.63%

Total105.26%

True Probabilities

(After removing bookmaker margin)

Home True Prob50.00%

Away True Prob50.00%

Home Expected Value

-5.00%

Bad Value

Your assessment: 50.00%

Away Expected Value

-5.00%

Bad Value

Your assessment: 50.00%

Kelly Sizing

Optimal stake %

Full Kelly Home

0.00%

25% Kelly Home

0.00%

25% Kelly Away

0.00%

Recommendation

✗ Home lacks value

✗ Away lacks value

Concepts

Market Margin: Bookmakers embed a margin into odds to guarantee profit. High margins = poor value for bettors.

Expected Value: Long-term profit per unit staked. Positive EV = edge; place these bets over time for profit.

Kelly Criterion: Optimal bet size formula. Full Kelly is aggressive; fractional Kelly (e.g., 25%) is safer for most.

Sport AI Analysis